Is indoor overheating an upcoming risk in southern Spain social housing stocks? Predictive assessment under a climate change scenario

Beyond thermal comfort, the future outlook of climate change poses a challenge for the health of the most vulnerable inhabitants of the existing residential stock. In southern Spain specifically there is extensive social housing stock that is obsolete from an energy perspective and occupied by an aging population with economic constraints for the use of energy. The main aim of this work is to evaluate the possible comfort risks in terms of overheating following the different criteria established by the Chartered Institution of Building Services Engineers (CIBSE), both under current conditions and in a climate change scenario. For this purpose, a parametric simulation model was developed to reliably evaluate the category of linear-type social housing from the postwar period, a total of more than 42,000 dwellings. The results show that around 38% of the evaluated cases are already at risk of overheating as they fail to meet two of the three adaptive criteria set in TM52. By 2050 this figure will be almost 100%. In addition, it is expected that global warming will result in an increase of up to 40% in the percentage of Hours of Exceedance.