Case study for investigating groundwater and the future of mountain spring discharges in Southern Italy

Groundwater extraction is used to alleviatedrought in many habitats. However, widespreaddrought decreases spring discharge and there is aneed to integrate climate change research intoresource management and action. Accurate estimatesof groundwater discharge may be valuable inimproving decision support systems ofhydrogeological resource exploitation. The presentstudy performs a forecast for groundwater dischargein Aquifer’s Cervialto Mountains (southern Italy). Atime series starting in 1883 was the basis for longtermpredictions. An Ensemble Discharge Prediction(EDisP) was applied, and the progress of the dischargeensemble forecast was inferred with the aid of anExponential Smoothing (ES) model initialized atdifferent annual times. EDisP-ES hindcast modelexperiments were tested, and discharge plume-patternsforecast was assessed with horizon placed in the year2044. A 46-year cycle pattern was identified bycomparing simulations and observations, which isessential for the forecasting purpose. ED is P-ESperformed an ensemble mean path for the comingdecades that indicates a discharge regime within ± 1standard deviation around the mean value of 4.1 m3 s-1.These fluctuations are comparable with those observedin the period 1961-1980 and further back, with changepointsdetectable around the years 2025 and 2035.Temporary drought conditions are expected after theyear 2030.