Predicting one type of technological motion? A nonlinear map to study the ‘sailing-ship’ effect

In this work, we use a proven model to study a dynamic duopolistic competition between an old technology and a new technology which through an improved technical performance—e.g. data transmission capacity—fight in order to conquer market share. The process whereby an old technology fights a new one off through own improvements has been named ‘sailing-ship effect’. In the simulations proposed, intentional improvements of both the old technology and the new technology are affected by the values of three key parameters: scientific-technological, purely technological and purely economic. The interaction between these components gives rise to different outcomes in terms of prevalence of one technology over the other.