The massive penetration of wind generators in electrical power systems asks for effective wind power forecasting tools, which should be high reliable, in order to mitigate the effects of the uncertain generation profiles, and fast enough to enhance power system operation. To address these two conflicting objectives, this paper advocates the role of knowledge discovery from big-data, by proposing the integration of adaptive Case Based Reasoning models, and cardinality reduction techniques based on Partial Least Squares Regression, and Principal Component Analysis. The main idea is to learn from a large database of historical climatic observations, how to solve the wind-forecasting problem, avoiding complex and time-consuming computations. To assess the benefits derived by the application of the proposed methodology in complex application scenarios, the experimental results obtained in a real case study will be presented and discussed.

Spatial and Temporal Wind Power Forecasting by Case-Based Reasoning Using Big-Data

De Caro F;Vaccaro A;Villacci D
2017

Abstract

The massive penetration of wind generators in electrical power systems asks for effective wind power forecasting tools, which should be high reliable, in order to mitigate the effects of the uncertain generation profiles, and fast enough to enhance power system operation. To address these two conflicting objectives, this paper advocates the role of knowledge discovery from big-data, by proposing the integration of adaptive Case Based Reasoning models, and cardinality reduction techniques based on Partial Least Squares Regression, and Principal Component Analysis. The main idea is to learn from a large database of historical climatic observations, how to solve the wind-forecasting problem, avoiding complex and time-consuming computations. To assess the benefits derived by the application of the proposed methodology in complex application scenarios, the experimental results obtained in a real case study will be presented and discussed.
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12070/3681
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