A system of models for the analysis of the freight corridor between Italy and China: parametric vs. non parametric trade gravity models

This paper proposes and compares several parametric and non-parametric trade gravity models for estimating freight transport volumes of international connections. In detail, the kernel of the research focuses specifically on different types of estimation gravity models, following both panel-data parametric and non parametric regression approaches: the outcomes of the two different approaches are presented and contrasted, providing for interesting results both from the theoretical and the practical standpoints. The models are calibrated and tested on the case of freight corridor between Italy and China and, in order to obtain a regional focus, also a port choice model is proposed and calibrated.