Feasibility study of a regional EEW system for the Eastern Caribbean Region

A feasibility study of an earthquake early warning (EEW) system was conducted for Antigua and Barbuda (Eastern Caribbean Region) testing two interface earthquake scenarios corresponding to the maximum credible earthquake and to the earthquake scenario associated with a return period of 475 years. Broadband synthetic seismograms were produced at three selected sensitive facilities, where there is possible interest in the installation of an EEW system. The expected damage was retrieved from the synthetic seismograms and compared with the lead-time determined for a regional EEW, configured to a first approximation based on the principles of geometrical optics. Next, the Virtual Seismologist EEW algorithm, as included in SeisComp3, was tested. Additional broadband synthetic seismograms were produced for the stations in the Eastern Caribbean seismic networks in order to simulate the real time behaviour of the seismic networks during the occurrence of the synthetic earthquakes and to assess the predictive capacity of the selected ground motion prediction equation. Expected peak ground accelerations and lead-times at the critical infrastructures constitute the major outcome of the study